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- 12:30 #morningPages - Starting the day with call with @/Pari Kadam and @ PK - Slept last night at 6:30 AM... morning hours. Feel young now, Sid? - Eight Sleep Daily Stats stats - Sleeping for: 7.5 hours - HRV: 27 - HR: 69 - Weight: 145 lbs #P/BackTo140lbsChallenge - Great 2nd week progress. Down from 148 lbs last week. Started this 8 week challenge at 151 lbs - fyi. So good job Sid. - I expect the next 6 pounds to take twice as long. So 4 more weeks. So 139lbs. that would be awesome. - - 14:30 collapsed:: true - Breakfast: quest chips, almonds and wasabi peas. Dry and yum. #Kitchen - Don’t feel like eating anything that would feel heavy on tummy. Broke the fast with Diet Coke and now this. - Kitchen Tips salt steak 2 hours before cooking and cook till 130 F internal. Let it test for 5 minutes before slicing. #steak - 16:30 collapsed:: true - TODO So yesterday I got into crazy rabbit hole of deciphering and groking small business buy out and investment strategy. The twitter cool dudes now seem to be on it a bit. Found quite a few interesting thread that I shall capture in this new page SMB - Small and Medium Business - Started new [‘alt rock and country‘ playlist]({{youtube https://music.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLcyR5ap1OXgJmTbIoNLe_XH9meIz_jYmD&feature=share}}) on YouTube music. The song staind got me the vibes. I call it - the American growing up feels. - 2022 Market Crash collapsed:: true - Source: [tweet](https://twitter.com/lessin/status/1528750068932788225?s=12&t=Kv2z-jKOAz66dseLbJfsEg) - Ha What happens to Seed Investing in Next 18 Months.. The thing to understand about VC is that it is basically just a capital supply chain... The public market demands and values X, late stage investors then deliver product against that spec to serve the public market, which causes early stage investors to deliver against the spec of late stage investors. The public market demand has largely dried up for the products late-stage VC has been selling them because of (a) macro shifts and (b) most of the crap the late-stage market sold the public was either straight duds or massively massively over-priced so that the public market is now pissed about having been sold crap (which they are really realizing is crap now that the market sugar high of covid is over) *so so many IPOs of the last several years were obviously 'weak' companies getting credit as though they were tech companies, starting with the on- demand service glut, etc.... so many late stage investors made so much money with zero judgement, just being willing to pay / have more balls on valuation with a tail wind - but party is over* So now the late stage folks are stuck with all this inventory of startups on their books that is massively overpriced and they can't sell…../ they massively overpaid for it and now their ownership will get chipped away by cash needs to keep these things going. Their LPs are now looking over- weight private VC with their public investments collapsing & worse still so many private Vs are now crossovers they themselves are way down.. .. SO Problems Earlier folks / seed funds have more than enough money and even if they take hits on marks the reality is that they invest at such low prices they are still 'good', but (a) they don't know exactly what to buy because they don't know what the later-stage folks are in the market for and (b) they really don't know what prices the later-stage folks will pay for things (which impacts directly what they are willing to pay). So what happens in the early stage deal world? great companies get funded, but there will be a 'pause' even for them as people sort out valuation questions / what later stage folks can pay. everyone simplifies - simpler business models, fewer 'bank shots' / leaps of faith because there isn't a safety net of more capital later to catch you if you miss (you just go splat) focus on core software, and known business models. The obviously good 'straight up the middle' software deals have been too expensive for last few years forcing people to get creative .. but pricing comes down and they can again support real 10x for sure - 100x possible returns from seed (vs starting at 100 pre) they are the easiest business to fund -